AI to significantly boost cyber threats over next two years

A report published by the UK’s National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) warns that AI will substantially increase cyber threats over the next two years. 

The centre warns of a surge in ransomware attacks in particular; involving hackers deploying malicious software to encrypt a victim’s files or entire system and demanding a ransom payment for the decryption key.

The NCSC assessment predicts AI will enhance threat actors’ capabilities mainly in carrying out more persuasive phishing attacks that trick individuals into providing sensitive information or clicking on malicious links.

“Generative AI can already create convincing interactions like documents that fool people, free of the translation and grammatical errors common in phishing emails,” the report states. 

The advent of generative AI, capable of creating convincing interactions and documents free of common phishing red flags, is identified as a key contributor to the rising threat landscape over the next two years.

The NCSC assessment identifies challenges in cyber resilience, citing the difficulty in verifying the legitimacy of emails and password reset requests due to generative AI and large language models. The shrinking time window between security updates and threat exploitation further complicates rapid vulnerability patching for network managers.

James Babbage, director general for threats at the National Crime Agency, commented: “AI services lower barriers to entry, increasing the number of cyber criminals, and will boost their capability by improving the scale, speed, and effectiveness of existing attack methods.”

However, the NCSC report also outlined how AI could bolster cybersecurity through improved attack detection and system design. It calls for further research on how developments in defensive AI solutions can mitigate evolving threats.

Access to quality data, skills, tools, and time makes advanced AI-powered cyber operations feasible mainly for highly capable state actors currently. But the NCSC warns these barriers to entry will progressively fall as capable groups monetise and sell AI-enabled hacking tools.

Extent of capability uplift by AI over next two years:

Lindy Cameron, CEO of the NCSC, stated: “We must ensure that we both harness AI technology for its vast potential and manage its risks – including its implications on the cyber threat.”

The UK government has allocated £2.6 billion under its Cyber Security Strategy 2022 to strengthen the country’s resilience to emerging high-tech threats.

AI is positioned to substantially change the cyber risk landscape in the near future. Continuous investment in defensive capabilities and research will be vital to counteract its potential to empower attackers.

A full copy of the NCSC’s report can be found here.

(Photo by Muha Ajjan on Unsplash)

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